Steady Demand Support Holds Up Well, Iron Ore Prices Hold Up Well [SMM Brief Review]

Today, iron ore futures fluctuated upward. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.92% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose by 6–9 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders mainly offered at appropriate prices; steel mills mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and overall trading activity was moderate.
This period, SMM statistics showed global iron ore shipments were 31.88 million mt, down 5.98 million mt (15.8%) WoW from the previous period. Meanwhile, port arrivals at China's main ports increased instead of decreasing, reaching 27.95 million mt, up 470,000 mt (1.7%) WoW, indicating continued supply pressure in the short term.
Looking ahead, as the market officially enters the critical pre-Chinese New Year raw material restocking window, rigid restocking demand is expected to provide strong bottom support for ore prices. However, considering that port inventory remains high, ample spot supply may cap the upside room for iron ore prices. Taking into account the current tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the near term.